IMRA'S WEEKLY COMMENTARY ON ARUTZ 7 - 1 April, 1999
Aaron Lerner Date: 1 April, 1999
Broadcast in English on Thursday nights at 10:00 PM on 98.7 FM
and on 711 AM throughout Israel - recording available on
http://www.a7.org

Happy Holidays.

Before I talk about the reliance of the program of the Left on
baseless assertions I want to say a word about Kosovo:

1. KOSOVO AND THE MISSILE AGE
Here we are in the midst of the so-called 'missile age' where such considerations as 'strategic depth are supposed to be a thing of the past and it turns out that the NATO forces can't control the situation on the ground without actually being there. That's right, without having land forces on the territory itself you can do a lot of damage - but you can't rule. Strategic depth matters. It did before. It does now. It will in the future. We need the Golan and the West Bank today and we will need them in the future regardless of the gizmos we have.

2. NATO IN KOSOVO SETS NO PRECEDENT FOR ISRAEL
We face terror and we deal with it. We don't line up innocent people against the wall and open fire. Regardless of the circumstances others face we cannot accept that they take such actions. Again - this has nothing to do with the records of the parties. Nothing can justify such actions. And we, of all people, can ill afford to leave this stand subject to question.

The intervention of NATO is poorly explained - perhaps even poorly thought out. The slaughter reported in Kosovo certainly has drawn a stronger reaction than slaughters elsewhere. But let one thing be clear - the logic - as fuzzy as it may be - for acting in Kosovo is not a logic that in any way can apply to the Arab-Israeli scene. It is driven by the actions against civilians. Actions that have been taking place for a considerable period of time. The Jewish State will never - never - take the kind of action against civilians that has served as the underlying justification for NATO intervention in Kosovo. To repeat - the NATO action in now way sets a precedent that
can be applied in the future against Israel.

3. BASELESS ASSUMPTIONS OF THE LEFT
How did the philosopher get out of the slippery pit? He asserted that there was a ladder and climbed out.

These days such theoretical ladders abound.

The European Union justified its declaration reaffirming "the continuing and unqualified Palestinian right to self-determination including the option of a state" by asserting that the EU "is convinced that the creation of a democratic, viable and peaceful sovereign Palestinian state would be the best guarantee of Israel's security." But the EU has no grounds to assume that such a state would be either democratic or peaceful.

As Yossi Sarid, an ardent supporter of a Palestinian state, declared (Ha'aretz March 23, 1995) "We have to recognize that the elections in the region are not democratic but I have not taken it upon myself to change the traditional Arab society."

Palestinians also don't share the EU's illusions about democracy. In late January, the Center for Palestine Research and Studies survey of Palestinian adults found only 35.5% rating the status of democracy and human rights under the Palestinian Authority (PA) as "good" or "better" (in contrast, 64.2% gave Israel that score).

As for "peaceful?" The situation among PA security forces has gotten so out of hand that LAW - the Palestinian Society for the Protection of Human rights and the Environment, called last week for the PA to disarm its security forces and issue weapons only to a "limited number of properly trained personnel" and then only "on occasions where such force is warranted.

"The carriage and ownership of firearms," LAW notes, "should be made illegal." Yes, many tens of thousands of weapons are out there. In March of 1995, then US secretary of state Warren Christopher demanded that Yasser Arafat immediately seize all private weapons inside the autonomy. At the time, according to Arafat's own report to the US, there were some 26,000 illegal weapons in the Gaza Strip alone. Nothing happened then and nothing has happened since.

The EU assertion that the Palestinian state would be "peaceful" also assumes that the Arab-Israeli conflict would be resolved with the declaration of the Palestinian state. But that is not in the cards.
Last Sunday, PA Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Nabil Shaath's interview in Le Monde wheeled out a favorite ladder of Oslo supporters, when he mentioned discussions he held with Yossi Beilin about declaring a Palestinian state with a land swap of no more than 5% of the West Bank which has Israeli settlements, for Israeli territory adjacent to the Gaza Strip.

But as Shaath explained to Le Monde reporter Mouna Naim, the most difficult issues - including Jerusalem - would be left unresolved.

With the February CPRS poll finding 91.3% of Palestinians rejecting Jerusalem remaining Israel's unified capital and only 3.3% preferring the Israeli Left's proposal of having the Old City under joint sovereignty and the remainder of east Jerusalem under Palestinian sovereignty, the die is cast for conflict. So much for Beilin's ladder.

Such theoretical ladders may play well with some of the Israeli electorate that seeks simple solutions to difficult problems. But the State of Israel doesn't just deserve - its long-term survival requires - a direction firmly grounded in reality. Otherwise we will find ourselves stuck in an ever deepening pit

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director
IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-9-7411645
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