Stratfor Center

Endgame

Chapter 1

2245 GMT, 990519 - Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis criticized the European Union (EU) for not taking the initiative to resolve the Kosovo crisis peacefully. "The European Union showed weakness in handling peacefully the crisis in Kosovo and Yugoslavia,'' Simitis said. ``It did not form the appropriate policy at the start. It did not make the necessary interventions. It did not take any initiatives."

2212 GMT, 990519 – Greek Foreign Minister Georgeos Papandreou is scheduled to arrive in Moscow on a working visit on Moscow on May 21. During the visit, Papandreou is to hold talks with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Russia's Balkans envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin. One of the issues to be discussed at the talks will be a plan of further work within the framework of the Russian-Greek-Swiss initiative called "Focus" designed to provide humanitarian aid to the victims of the Kosovo conflict.

2200 GMT, 990519 – French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin has reportedly canceled a planned visit to Russia due to the change of government in that country. French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anne Gazeau-Secret said, "taking into account the process in course of recognizing a new Prime minister of the Russian federation and the forming of a new government, the Russian and French authorities agreed to delay the 5th session of the Franco-Russian joint commission for bilateral cooperation." Jospin originally was due to visit Moscow on May 24 and 25.

2150 GMT, 990519 - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told NATO ambassadors that he did not expect China to veto a UN Security Council resolution to end the conflict in Kosovo. Following his visit to China last week, Schroeder said that if Russia is willing to support a UN resolution, then China would likely support it as well.

2140 GMT, 990519 - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder pressured NATO officials to quickly complete a thorough investigation of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade on May 7. Schroeder reportedly told NATO ambassadors that the results of an inquiry promised by NATO Secretary General Javier Solana should have been made public by now. Schroeder said that NATO must be "open and frank" about the events that led to the bombing earlier this month.

2135 GMT, 990519 - Britain said that Foreign Secretary Robin Cook’s trip to the U.S. today is not intended to push Washington for the use of ground troops. A spokesman for Prime Minister Tony Blair said that there have been no statements to that effect from the government, covert or otherwise. "I wouldn't build up any great arguments from stories quoting so-called anonymous sources close to the Prime Minister," the spokesman said. The Financial Times quoted anonymous sources today that Cook would pressure the U.S. on the use of ground troops in Yugoslavia.

2130 GMT, 990519 - According to Albanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is stalling for time waiting for the onset of winter, hoping it will give him additional leverage with refugees living in camps. "Milosevic now wants to discuss each point of the proposals by the Group of Eight (G8) nations knowing that with the onset of winter he will have a formidable weapon to manipulate an unprepared international community," Milo said.

2120 GMT, 990519 - White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said today that there are signals coming from Belgrade that Yugoslavia is ready to agree to a settlement of the conflict. "There are a number of reports out of Belgrade and out of the region that he may be looking for a deal," Lockhart said today of Milosevic. "It's our hope that Chernomyrdin will bring a message that NATO is resolved and is not moving until the five conditions are met."

2115 GMT, 990519 - U.S. military officials said that a peacekeeping force in Kosovo would consist of 45,000-50,000 troops and would only go in under the proper conditions. Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon said that NATO has not altered its policy that ground troops would only go in as peacekeepers and with approval from Belgrade or the UN Security Council.

2055 GMT, 990519 - Radio Tirana reported that the Albanian military are conducting exercises along the border with Kosovo. According to Radio Tirana, the Yugoslav military continues to shell Albanian territory. Radio Tirana also reported that Albanian military units repelled a Yugoslav incursion yesterday. General Kudusi Lame, commander of the Albanian Second Military Division in Kukes, told Radio Tirana that his division is conducting normal military maneuvers. "The Second Military Division in Kukes has started its military exercise, with the participation of heavy artillery, tanks and anti- aircraft artillery," Lame said.

2040 GMT, 990519 - Despite statements from the White House saying that using AH-64 Apache helicopters in Operation Allied Force would be too risky, the Apaches continue to conduct exercises in Albania. An undisclosed number of Apaches were involved in an exercise conducted on May 18. During the exercise the Apaches rendezvoused at an undisclosed location in the mountains with a CH-47 Chinook helicopter outfitted with extra fuel bladders.

2020 GMT, 990519 - Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Yiannos Kranidiotis said today that his country fully supports the framework peace agreement proposed on May 6 by the G-8 foreign ministers.

2015 GMT, 990519 - British Air Marshal John Day told reporters that Serb troops have not suffered significant casualties yet. "Although they have yet to suffer significant casualties, we know from intelligence that they are finding it progressively harder to operate," Day said.

1945 GMT, 990519 - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was quoted by TASS as saying that Germany will remain a reliable partner of Russia, and will assist Russia in resolving its economic troubles. "This also concerns the settlement of the conflict in Kosovo, " Schroeder said.

1920 GMT, 990519 - Amnesty International reported that refugees in Macedonian camps have been intimidated and mistreated by Macedonian police. The report also charged that Macedonia is opening and closing its borders to pressure other countries to evacuate refugees out of Macedonia. Amnesty also said that Macedonian authorities have not lived up to their obligation to provide refugees with a legal status, nor did authorities advise refugees of their rights before being evacuated from Macedonia so that they could make informed decisions.

1915 GMT, 990519 - Approximately 100 Serb ultra-nationalists threw eggs and rocks at the Belgrade office of Zoran Djindjic’s opposition Democratic Party (DS). The DS party has been accused of treason by Yugoslav state media. Witnesses said that protestors carried signs that read "Fifth Column" and "Treason". The crowd of demonstrators chanted "We will kill Djindjic," "Fascists," Out with traitors" and "We will not give up Kosovo."

1905 GMT, 990519 - A spokeswoman for the UNHCR said that the international community must start planning now what to do with refugees from Kosovo before winter arrives. "The refugees cannot spend the winter in tents," Sadako Ogata said. "We need winter tents and prefabricated housing, drinking water and decent sanitary facilities," she said.

1855 GMT, 990519 - French President Jacques Chirac said that he believes that peace in Kosovo is getting closer every day. "Each day that goes by sees the chances of a settlement coming closer. We can see this both on the diplomatic and on the military front," Chirac said.

1850 GMT, 990519 - NATO reported that 500 Yugoslav soldiers have deserted their army units in Kosovo. NATO said that the desertion is a sign that the Yugoslav military is beginning to crack under NATO military action. NATO spokesman Jamie Shea explained that the troops might have deserted after hearing of a police crackdown on anti-war demonstrators in Krusevac. "The military units probably learned of the demonstrations and police response through broadcasts into the area by western radio stations and deserted in order to rejoin and support their families," Shea said.

1805 GMT, 990519 - During a break in the G-8 meeting, Russia’s representative Boris Mayorsky said that Russia would not support any UN resolution unless NATO ended its air campaign over Yugoslavia. "As long as the bombing goes on...the results of our work cannot be described as an agreed draft,'' Mayorsky told reporters.

1750 GMT, 990519 - In an update to a previous report on a bomb going off in Skopje, the bomb was reportedly thrown into the street, and not at the mosque. According to Macedonian sources, the bomb exploded in the street approximately 200 meters from the mosque. The bomb went off in what is reportedly one of the busiest streets in Skopje, and is heavily populated with ethnic Albanians.

1720 GMT, 990519 - Officials attending the G-8 meeting said during a break that while the talks have made "substantive" progress, they have produced no breakthroughs. One official said that there will probably be another meeting of political directors in order to agree on key points of a UN resolution. Today’s meeting was expected to adjourn at 1700 GMT.

1705 GMT, 990519 - NATO spokesman Jamie Shea said that NATO would not offer any compromises or negotiate with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to end the crisis in Kosovo. Shea said that NATO is looking for the UN Security Council to draft a thorough and detailed resolution on situation in the Balkans. Shea said that the resolution must not leave Milosevic an "escape hatch".

1650 GMT, 990519 - The American Petroleum Institute released a report that NATO aircraft operating in the Balkans consume 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) of jet fuel oil, and other oil related products. Operation Allied Force aircraft currently account for five percent of the world’s demand for jet fuel oil.

1640 GMT, 990519 - Two people were injured in an explosion at the main mosque in Skopje, Macedonia. The explosion is believed to have been caused by a bomb. There are conflicting eyewitnesses accounts of the explosion. Some say that the bomb was planted, while others say that the bomb was thrown at the mosque from a moving car. The 14th century mosque is located in a predominantly ethnic Albanian part of Skopje.

1528 GMT, 990519 – NATO military spokesman Major-General Walter Jertz said today that NATO has now destroyed nearly a third of the Yugoslav army's tanks and heavy artillery in Kosovo and 69 percent of its best fighter planes.

He said NATO warplanes have hit a total of 556 pieces of military equipment in Kosovo. A total of 312 of these were what NATO defines as "heavy forces" -- tanks, artillery and armored personnel carriers. This represented 31 percent of the estimated total of heavy forces the Serbs had in Kosovo at the start of the air campaign, Jertz said.

Jertz went on to say that NATO had destroyed 69 percent of Yugoslavia's Soviet-built MiG-29 fighter planes, 24 percent of its MiG 21's, 33 percent of its stock of Super Galebs and 46 percent of its Galeb aircraft. He added that the airstrikes had also significantly degraded Serb air defenses. Some 75 percent of fixed surface-to-air missile sites and 12 percent of mobile systems have been struck.

1500 GMT, 990519 –Three humanitarian aid convoys from Greece, Russia and Switzerland have arrived in Pristina and Belgrade in recent days as part of a three-country aid initiative called "Focus." Focus said it plans to open offices shortly in the Kosovo provincial capital of Pristina as well as in Podgorica, the capital of Montenegro.

alert.jpg (1160 bytes)1437 GMT, 990519 – News reports have surfaced that a bomb has exploded in Macedonia along the route that was to be taken by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan during his visit to refugee camps there. Details are sketchy at the moment.

1425 GMT, 990519 Russia's Balkans envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin is scheduled to meet with will meet with U.S. and Finnish negotiators in Moscow on May 20 to discuss the Kosovo crisis. Chernomyrdin will meet with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.

1343 GMT, 990519 Newly confirmed Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin said, while responding to questions from State Duma deputies, that the formation of the Union of Russia, Belarus and Yugoslavia is "a strategic direction of the Russian foreign policy."

1335 GMT, 990519 – The German Foreign Ministry reported that German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer is meeting Carl Bildt, the UN's special envoy to the Balkans, for talks today on efforts to bring about a peaceful solution to the Kosovo conflict.

1322 GMT, 990519 – The independent Serb newspaper "Glas Javnosti" has reported that commanders of a Yugoslav army garrison in the southern Serbia town of Krusevac have accused protesters in a series of anti-army rallies of treason. An army statement said some participants faced legal action. A statement by the army garrison command in the Yugoslav town of Krusevac condemned organizers of the protests as ''traitors'' and accused them of ''undermining the defense of the country and collaboration with the (NATO) enemy.''

1318 GMT, 990519 – Assistant to the Russian Naval Commander, 2nd rank Captain Igor Dygalo, announced that Russia has sent another warship, the Kildin, to the Adriatic to replace the Liman reconnaissance vessel that has left for a Syrian port to replenish its food and fresh water supply. The Liman is due to return to its base in Sebastopol after its crew has a short rest. According to Dygalo, the Kildin will continue to monitor the situation in the zone of the Yugoslav conflict and to report the information to the Russian military command.

The Kildin is a Moma class reconnaissance ship. Its total displacement is 1600 tons. It is 73. 3 meters long with a speed of 17 knots. It has a cruising range of 9000 nautical miles and an 85-member crew. The warship is equipped with two air-defense rocket launchers and 16 missiles.

1308 GMT, 990519 – Senior officials of the Group of Eight, the world's seven largest industrialized states plus Russia, are to meet in Bonn today to discuss the Kosovo crisis. The G8 meeting comes after a signal by Belgrade yesterday that it was ready to open a dialogue over a G8 peace proposal that calls for an end to NATO air attacks against Yugoslavia in return for a withdrawal of Serbian troops from the province of Kosovo. Yugoslav Foreign Ministry spokesman Nebojsa Vujovic, commenting on the meeting, told reporters: "The G8 statement represents elements of the peace process and we are open to that despite some of our reservations." He added, however, that Belgrade "needs further clarification and concretisation of the principles" set out in the G8 statement, issued at a foreign ministers meeting in Bonn May 6.

1253 GMT, 990519 – NATO Secretary General Javier Solana said in an interview published today in the German newspaper "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" that NATO must have a clear signal from Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic if it is to consider a cease-fire and this could be the beginning of a verifiable troop withdrawal. He said Milosevic must send a "clear signal that the Serbian troops would fully withdraw from Kosovo."

1247 GMT, 990519 – In an announcement to the Italian parliament, Italian Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema said that he plans to meet with NATO Secretary General Javier Solana in Brussels on May 20 to discuss the Kosovo crisis.

1241 GMT, 990519 German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder today reiterated Bonn's opposition to sending ground troops into Kosovo and said he did not anticipate any change in NATO strategy. "The Federal Government -- and the opposition is equally clear on this --rejects sending in of ground troops. That is the German position," Schroeder said after meeting NATO Secretary General Javier Solana. "That is also the present position of NATO and it can only be changed if all the allies agree. "I see no reason whatsoever for a change." Schroeder also expressed optimism that a new round of diplomacy being led by Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari and Russian envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin would pave the way to a UN Security Council resolution aimed at ending the conflict. "I am a bit more hopeful than I was a week ago."

1229 GMT, 990519 – Russia's Balkans envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin has reportedly already left Helsinki for Belgrade today. Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, who had floated the idea of joining Chernomyrdin, has announced that he will stay in Helsinki. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, who has also been involved in the talks with Chernomyrdin and Ahtisaari, will fly to Germany to brief members of the G8 on the talks.

1200 GMT, 990519 – NATO reports that weather again forced the cancellation of the majority of NATO strike missions yesterday on Day 56 of Operation Allied Force. NATO flew 425 sorties, of which only 58 were strike sorties and 28 suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) sorties. NATO aircraft also destroyed six Galeb aircraft on the ground north of Prizren. Ground force artillery positions in Kosovo were also hit.

Other targets included:

Radio relay sites at:

All NATO aircraft returned safely. Allied Force operations are underway on Day 57.

0240 GMT, 990519 - Norwegian Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek, chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said that Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari will travel with Russian envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin to Belgrade. Ahtisaari previously said that he would not go to Belgrade unless substantial progress was made in discussions between Chernomyrdin and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott. Vollebaek said that Chernomyrdin and Ahtisaari will be looking to get a "clear signal" from Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic that he is willing to comply with NATO conditions for a cease-fire. "Before we stop military action against President Milosevic we have to know for sure that he means business and is willing to withdraw," Vollebaek said.

0225 GMT, 990519 - British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook is expected to press Washington on the need for using ground troops in Yugoslavia when he meets with U.S. officials on May 19. The Financial Times quoted unnamed British government officials as saying that the UK is the only NATO country willing to face the prospect of having to use ground troops in Yugoslavia. "The Americans have not reached a crunch decision one way or another. We have not won the argument yet," said one official.

0215 GMT, 990519 - UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) officials report that Yugoslav troops are taking up positions in Urosevac in civilian areas to avoid NATO attacks. "They said there was a very big military presence (in the Urosevac area)," UNHCR spokeswoman Astrid van Gesteren Stort said. According to eyewitness accounts from refugees troops are taking up positions in schools, and hospitals. "There are even guns in the ambulances," van Gesteren Stort said.

0205 GMT, 990519 - The House of Representatives passed a bill that will provide the U.S. military with $12 billion, most of which will be used to pay for military actions in the Balkans.

0155 GMT, 990519 - Today Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze condemned NATO for its attacks on Yugoslavia. At the same time Shevardnadze said that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic should compromise with NATO to end the conflict in Kosovo. Shevardnadze added that if NATO had not intervened to stop "open ethnic cleansing and genocide of Kosovar Albanians a big war might have been very near."

0140 GMT, 990519 - Yugoslav Foreign Ministry spokesman Nebojsa Vujovic said that his country is "ready to cut a deal" with NATO. "How could a nation of 11 million be a loser when the mightiest, the most developed countries in the world and the mightiest military alliance, is conducting a high-tech war for almost two months against a small nation? And who is the moral victor standing by against this powerful aggression?" Vujovic added, "So, yes, we are ready to cut a deal based on the preservation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and based on our vital state interests."

0135 GMT, 990519 - Almost 1,000 refugees arrived in Macedonia today, and some said they were beaten by Serb soldiers. UN High Commission for Refugees spokeswoman Astrid van Gesteren Stort said that refugees from Drenica reported having been beaten at the border as well as in Urosevac. Apparently the refugees from Drenica were singled out for beatings because the area that they come from is a Kosovo Liberation Army stronghold.

0110 GMT, 990519 - Slovakian Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan said that in his role as UN mediator in the Kosovo crisis, his focus will be on contacting all the parties involved. "Definitely at this stage, the role for Carl Bildt and myself is to contact all the parties concerned, all the governments, to get as much information as possible in order to contribute in the future for the UN role in this whole process," Kukan said. "Deep coordination is needed at this time, because representatives of western powers are considering the possible trip of Ahtissari and Chernomyrdin in Belgrade, so I wouldn't like to compete," Kukan added.

0040 GMT, 990519 - Yugoslav news agency Tanjug reported that NATO aircraft dropped two missiles on the Jugopetrol depot in the southwestern Belgrade suburb of Cukarica at 2037 GMT.

0005 GMT, 990519 - The Pentagon said that a peacekeeping force for Yugoslavia might be as large as 45,000-50,000 troops. Originally Defense Department officials said that 28,000 troops would be enough troops to implement a peacekeeping mission. The Pentagon said that U.S. troops would still only comprise about 10 percent of the total peacekeeping force. ``NATO is in the process of increasing the size of that force, because they've decided that given all the changes that have taken place in Kosovo, it is likely we'll need a larger force,'' Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon said.

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