September 16, 2001-

Possible Military Attack Scenario

The Hindu-Kush parts of Afghanistan are very mountainous and rugged region. This area is the hideout of Osama Bin Laden. This is the northern parts of Afghanistan. A triangle area that stretches to the south from Mazar-I-Sherif to Faizbad and south to Peshawar and up again through Kabul.  Mountains and legendary inaccessible passes and trails dominate this area. Countries surrounding this region are Pakistan to the east  and south, and Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to the north. The southern parts of Afghanistan is flat, and  less inhabited. The Arabian Sea is approximately 800 hundred miles away from Kabul to the south and separated by Pakistani territories. Pakistan shares almost 1200 miles of borders with Afghanistan to the east and to the south. Pakistan is a key country to any air and land military operations aimed at Afghanistan.

A sustained military campaign against this country requires access to Pakistani airspace. The Pakistani government yesterday granted this crucial component to this military operation. The other piece of the puzzle is to find close staging areas for military logistic purposes that can provide continues support for sustainable military campaign.

The possible scenario of such operations including the use of ground force would be a similar one to the Iranian hostage rescue operation on April 24, 1980 called Eagle Claw, but on a wider scale. The location of such staging areas are defined by the terrain, the distance to the intended targets and the size and type of operations. A main temporary bases will probably be needed in a safe area hundreds of miles away and a combinations of several rendezvous locations for helicopters.  The use of helicopters will dominate this operation. The size of this operation needs weeks if not months of preparations and requires a well-defined exit strategy.

Saad Farage